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@PHDTHESIS{Pohya:1013098,
      author       = {Pohya, Ahmad Ali},
      othercontributors = {Stumpf, Eike and Mavris, Dimitri},
      title        = {{E}nhancing techno-economic assessments in aeronautic
                      product development with systematic uncertainty management},
      volume       = {2025,15},
      school       = {Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen},
      type         = {Dissertation},
      address      = {Köln},
      publisher    = {Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt},
      reportid     = {RWTH-2025-05341},
      series       = {Forschungsbericht / Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und
                      Raumfahrt DLR},
      pages        = {1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen},
      year         = {2025},
      note         = {Veröffentlicht auf dem Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen
                      University; Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische
                      Hochschule Aachen, 2025},
      abstract     = {This thesis investigated the enhancement of transparency
                      and reproducibility in technoeconomic assessments (TEAs) for
                      aeronautical product developments when input parameter
                      uncertainties are present. The primary objective was to
                      overcome identified barriers in the adoption of a systematic
                      uncertainty management methodology. These included methods
                      for the separation of relevant and negligible uncertainties,
                      the application of Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DSTE)
                      under data scarcity, as well as the combination of epistemic
                      (knowledge-based) and aleatory (variability-based)
                      uncertainties. By linking these barriers with systematic and
                      comparative analyses, the findings of this dissertation
                      provide a robust framework for effective uncertainty
                      management in TEAs, promote the field of innovative
                      aeronautic product development, and improve decision-making
                      processes under uncertainty. To illustrate the developed
                      uncertainty management methodology, a recurring case study
                      on the lifecycle-based TEA of Hybrid Laminar Flow Control
                      (HLFC) was utilized, drawing on information from two
                      European projects. This case study served as a realistic and
                      interdisciplinary example to demonstrate the quantification
                      of input and output uncertainties, as well as other UQ
                      methods addressed in this thesis. A significant contribution
                      of this dissertation was the investigation of the strengths
                      and weaknesses of various Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)
                      techniques, which quantify the individual criticality of
                      parameter uncertainties. Unlike conventional approaches that
                      often select GSA methods without clear criteria, this
                      research systematically assessed their capabilities,
                      interpretability, and computational efficiency. The
                      identified and partially significant differences underscore
                      the necessity for an informed and context-specific selection
                      of GSA techniques. Additionally, the Python package dste was
                      developed to address the need for user-friendly programming
                      toolboxes for handling DSTE-based UQ. Related analyses
                      demonstrated the capabilities of the package and discussed
                      the application of DSTE through systematic expert interviews
                      and theory-specific UQ metrics. Furthermore, the associated
                      interpretation difficulties, particularly concerning the
                      recipients of the TEA, and the challenges related to
                      computational efficiency were examined. The research also
                      explored methods for combining epistemic and aleatory
                      uncertainties and proposed a novel approach that integrates
                      DSTE-based and probabilistic UQ approaches using nested
                      Monte Carlo simulations. This approach enhances
                      interpretability and computational efficiency compared to a
                      purely evidence-theoretic approach and provides a nuanced
                      representation of uncertainties. Decision-makers benefit
                      from clearer insights through understandable visualization
                      and straightforward interpretation, while users can derive
                      tailored recommendations due to the clear separation of
                      epistemic and aleatory effects. Additionally, this approach
                      offers repeatability, allowing UQ to be consistently applied
                      and repeated throughout the product development process as
                      new information becomes available.},
      cin          = {415310},
      ddc          = {620},
      cid          = {$I:(DE-82)415310_20140620$},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)11 / PUB:(DE-HGF)3},
      doi          = {10.18154/RWTH-2025-05341},
      url          = {https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/1013098},
}