% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded. This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.
@PHDTHESIS{Mersmann:1015826,
author = {Mersmann, Katharina},
othercontributors = {Breuer, Wolfgang and Grund, Christian},
title = {{P}redicting post-bankruptcy success: determinants of
short- and long-term outcomes in chapter 11 filings},
school = {Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen},
type = {Dissertation},
address = {Aachen},
publisher = {RWTH Aachen University},
reportid = {RWTH-2025-06561},
pages = {1 Online-Ressource},
year = {2025},
note = {Veröffentlicht auf dem Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen
University; Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische
Hochschule Aachen, 2025},
abstract = {Corporate bankruptcies are an inevitable aspect of
economies worldwide, influenced by internal mismanagement
and external shocks. While often perceived as a sign of
business failure, bankruptcies can also provide
opportunities for strategic restructuring. Legal frameworks
such as Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code enable firms
to reorganize debt and operations rather than liquidate.
This process requires creditors and courts approval,
allowing firms to emerge as viable entities.The success of
Chapter 11 can be evaluated in both the short term,
considering firm emergence, and the long term, considering
financial viability and post-bankruptcy survival. While
approximately two-thirds of firms emerge from Chapter 11,
many face ongoing profitability challenges, and nearly
$30\%$ ultimately refile for bankruptcy. These high failure
rates negatively affect various stakeholders, including
creditors, employees, and investors. Therefore, identifying
the determinants of successful restructuring is essential.
This dissertation investigates these determinants through
four research papers, each addressing different aspects of
post-bankruptcy performance.The first research paper,
“Post-Bankruptcy Performance: A Systematic Literature
Review on the Performance of U.S. Firms after Emerging from
Chapter 11 Bankruptcy,” reviews existing literature on
post-bankruptcy outcomes, highlighting the heterogeneity in
post-bankruptcy success measures, such as refiling rates,
financial metrics, and stock performance. The review fins
that while larger firms with lower pre-filing leverage have
higher success rates, the impact of CEO turnover, bankruptcy
duration, and prepackaged filings remains uncertain. The
study advocates for standardizing performance metrics and
improving data availability. Futhermore, it identifies key
research gaps, including the application of advanced
analytical models, such as machine learning, to enhance
predictive accuracy or a more in-depth analysis of corporate
governance factors.The second research paper, “A Primer on
Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filings: Why the Genders of the CEO
and Judge (May) Matter,” examines the influence of CEO and
judge gender on Chapter 11 outcomes. The findings suggest
that female-led firms are less likely to successfully emerge
from bankruptcy under male judges but more likely to emerge
under female judges, indicating the presence of similarity
bias in judicial decision-making. This study underscoresthe
importance of judicial diversity and highlights the need to
address gender-based disparities in corporate restructuring
processes.The third research paper, “Dictionaries for
Post-Bankruptcy Success Prediction: A Machine Learning
Approach,” applies machine learning to reorganization
plans to develop a bankruptcy-specific dictionary for
predicting post-bankruptcy survival. The study demonstrates
that these dictionary-based predictions outperform
predictions based on traditional financial metrics or
established textual analysis dictionaries in accuracy. The
findings suggest that specific terms related to management,
employee representation, and claim types serve as strong
indicators of a firm's viability. Overall, the findings
advance predictive modeling in bankruptcy decision-making,
providing a valuable tool for creditors, courts and
investors in assessing post-bankruptcy prospects.The final
research paper, “Rebranding During Distress: The Long-Term
Effect of Corporate Name Changes During Chapter 11 on
Post-Bankruptcy Outcomes,” examines the impact of
corporate name changes on firm survival after bankruptcy.
The findings suggest that (substantial) name changes reduce
the likelihood of refiling, with larger firms and those
securing debtor-in-possession financing showing stronger
effects. The study indicates that rebranding may serve as a
signal of commitment to transformation and financial
recovery, highlighting its potential as a strategic tool
during corporate distress.Overall, the four studies enhance
the understanding of the determinants of corporate
bankruptcy outcomes by identifying unconventional factors
that influence firm survival. Beyond traditional financial
metrics, strategic decisions, and judicial biases play
significant roles in post-bankruptcy success. Additionally,
the application of machine-learning and textual analysis to
reorganization plans improves the predictability of
post-bankruptcy performance and uncovers potential factors
contributing to successful Chapter 11 restructurings. In
summary, all findings provide valuable implications for
policymakers, legal professionals, investors, and corporate
executives, contributing to more effective bankruptcy
decision-making and improving firm recovery strategies.},
cin = {812610},
ddc = {330},
cid = {$I:(DE-82)812610_20140620$},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)11},
doi = {10.18154/RWTH-2025-06561},
url = {https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/1015826},
}
guest ::