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@PHDTHESIS{Brisson:1022629,
author = {Brisson, Sofia Cecilia},
othercontributors = {Wellmann, Florian and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and von
Hagke, Christoph},
title = {{P}robabilistic approaches to including uncertainty in
3-{D} geometric and kinematic models of the {E}astern {A}lps
and its foreland: implications for exhumation histories and
their link to deeper processes},
school = {Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen},
type = {Dissertation},
address = {Aachen},
publisher = {RWTH Aachen University},
reportid = {RWTH-2025-10136},
pages = {1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen},
year = {2025},
note = {Veröffentlicht auf dem Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen
University 2026; Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische
Technische Hochschule Aachen, 2025},
abstract = {Deciphering the time-temperature evolution of the Alpine
orogen is key to understand the influence of deep-seated
processes on its exhumation. This is often done employing
thermokinematic models. One shortcoming of many current
approaches is that they are limited to 2-D and do not
consider structural or kinematic uncertainties, which can
have direct implications on accurately understanding
larger-scale processes of the Alps, such as the conjectured
Eastern Alps subduction polarity reversal. In this thesis, I
thus focus on developing 3-D modeling routines to include
structural and kinematic uncertainties in the Eastern Alps.
Using these models as base, I will explore the influence of
uncertainty on exhumation models and on the interpretation
of the tectonic evolution of the Eastern Alps. The first
focus of the thesis is on the Subalpine Molasse, the
foreland fold-thrust belt of the Alps, which is a key
element to resolve large-scale dynamics of the orogen. For
the first time, a procedure is created to account for
structural and kinematic uncertainty in complex, realistic,
3-D geological models of the Subalpine Molasse triangle
zone. Implicit and kinematic modeling packages are used to
create automated 3-D model realizations considering
parameter uncertainty. These routines are further integrated
into a Bayesian inversion framework, where thermal resetting
behavior from available low-temperature thermochronological
data is used as a modeling constraint to exhumation. The
developed approach marks the first implementation of
combining data from different thermochronometers with
probabilistic kinematic modeling in 3-D. Results from this
first part show that thermal resetting behavior can only
provide very broad constraints to exhumation and may not be
informative enough to achieve a decrease in uncertainty. The
simple benchmark studies show, however, that a greater data
density and/or using a combination of thermal resetting
behavior of different thermochronometers (i.e., enhancing
both spatial and temporal resolution) would render this
method very useful to obtain precise and accurate exhumation
estimates. The method is also potentially meaningful to
identify the need to consider alternative drivers of
exhumation. Next, I upscale these routines to the TRANSALP
section, a transect through the entire Alpine orogen. A
denser and more diverse thermochronological record is
employed to perform a quantitative model selection between
two 3-D orogen-scale geometric and kinematic hypotheses for
the TRANSALP section. One hypothesis supports subduction
polarity reversal, and the other does not. Results show that
using thermochronological record strongly supports the no
subduction polarity reversal model, as its geometry better
explains exhumation trends when considering parameter
uncertainty. I discuss these results in the context of
previously existing studies, that are mostly consistent with
a constant, southward subduction. It can be ascertained that
the developed method is useful, again, given the wide
availability of thermochronological data, to quantitatively
discriminate between different starting model hypotheses,
and is a practical way to address the ubiquitous subjective
uncertainties in geology.},
cin = {532610 / 530000 / 080052},
ddc = {550},
cid = {$I:(DE-82)532610_20140620$ / $I:(DE-82)530000_20140620$ /
$I:(DE-82)080052_20160101$},
pnm = {DFG project G:(GEPRIS)442495967 - Von plattentektonischen
Rekonstruktionen zu 4D geodynamischen Modellen von der
Alpine Gebirgsbildung (442495967) / SPP 2017:
Gebirgsbildungsprozesse in 4-Dimensionen (4D-MB)
(313806092)},
pid = {G:(GEPRIS)442495967 / G:(GEPRIS)313806092},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)11},
doi = {10.18154/RWTH-2025-10136},
url = {https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/1022629},
}
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