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@PHDTHESIS{Braun:1028100,
author = {Braun, Mark},
othercontributors = {Wintgens, Thomas Josef and Wittowsky, Dirk},
title = {{A}bleitung von {S}zenarien und {M}onetarisierung der
{A}uswirkungen des {K}limawandels und anthropogener
{N}utzungen auf {N}iedrigwasserereignisse und die
{W}irtschaft am {R}hein},
school = {Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen},
type = {Dissertation},
address = {Aachen},
publisher = {RWTH Aachen University},
reportid = {RWTH-2026-01451},
pages = {1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen},
year = {2025},
note = {Veröffentlicht auf dem Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen
University 2026; Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische
Technische Hochschule Aachen, 2025},
abstract = {The Rhine, with all its uses, is a waterway of outstanding
importance for water management. As climate change
progresses, climatic changes over the course of the 21st
century will lead to a shift in precipitation from summer to
winter and a general increase in extreme hydrological
events. Low water events caused by prolonged periods of
drought are a natural phenomenon, but their frequency and
intensity will increase in the future. In addition to their
ecological impact, they also cause considerable disruption
to inland navigation and the economy that depends on it
along the Rhine. Reliable navigability of the waterway is an
important location factor for the economy in the Rhine
catchment area. During low water periods, shipping and, in
particular, carriage on the Rhine can only take place at
reduced capacity, as the low water event in 2018 clearly
demonstrated. Shifting to other modes of transport such as
rail and road is only possible to a limited extent, meaning
that many goods cannot be transported. Entire economic
sectors along the Rhine are affected by the lack of
deliveries, leading to cascade effects and high losses in
added value. Therefore, in addition to climate protection,
climate adaptation is also becoming increasingly important
in order to cope with the inevitable consequences of climate
change. The possible adaptation measures for low water
events are known but require the participation of various
actors and stakeholders in order to achieve an integrated
low water management. Due to the often cost-intensive
investment requirements, a comparison with the benefits of
these measures is necessary in order to convince
decision-makers to invest. Monetary values are particularly
suitable for ensuring a comprehensible and transparent
comparison. This work provides a module for such a monetized
assessment of climatic and hydrological developments and
selected adaptation measures on the Rhine. To achieve this,
a (model-based) link between the topics of climate change,
hydrology, transport/logistics, and economics is
implemented. First, suitable climate scenarios are selected
for a forward-looking analysis of low water events. Current
SSP climate projections are evaluated for this purpose. The
LARSIM-ME water balance model and water level-discharge
relationships from the Federal Institute of Hydrology can
then be used to determine water levels at gauges relevant to
inland navigation in the Rhine catchment area. These are
then given into two economic models developed by Prognos AG,
which map the relationship between water levels and
transport modes as well as the economic interdependencies in
the Rhine catchment area. In this way, this work provides a
link between climatic, hydrological and economic data via a
closed model chain. The core of the work then consists of
deriving further hydrological scenarios for analyzing the
Rhine discharge system and selected anthropogenic uses. The
impact of various drivers, forms of use, and adaptation
options on low water levels and the economy along the Rhine
is presented using four economic parameters. A central
objective of the work is to determine the monetized
consequences of climate change and low water events on the
economy along the Rhine. The results are presented on the
basis of four low water scenarios identified by statistical
analysis for two global warming levels in the current
century. A counterfactual analysis allows the effects of
climate change and anthropogenic uses to be isolated,
assuming an otherwise static system with the economic
interdependencies that exist today. The economic effects are
presented on the basis of changes in the parameters of
production value, gross value added, number of employees,
and transport costs. The various economic regions and
sectors along the Rhine have specific characteristics and
are affected in different ways. One focus of the analysis is
on the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where the
R2K-Klim+ research project (FKZ 01LR2008) is realized and
where a homogeneous data basis is available for several
questions. Further results are presented for the adaptation
options of a changed fleet composition and the project
“Abladeoptimierung Mittelrhein” planned in the 2030
Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan. These real measures
are simplified and parameterized for integration into the
models.},
cin = {314110},
ddc = {624},
cid = {$I:(DE-82)314110_20140620$},
pnm = {Verbundprojekt RegIKlim: Strategisches
Entscheidungsunterstützungstool zur Anpassung an den
Klimawandel auf regionaler und kommunaler Ebene im
Rheineinzugsgebiet - R2K-Klim+ TP 1: Entwicklung
maßgeschneiderter Klimafolgenanpassungsmaßnahmen auf
kommunaler und regionaler Ebene (01LR2008A) / Verbundprojekt
RegIKlim: Strategisches Entscheidungsunterstützungstool zur
Anpassung an den Klimawandel auf regionaler und kommunaler
Ebene im Rheineinzugsgebiet - R2K-Klim+ TP 1: Konzept zur
kommunalen Klimaanpassung; Verbundkoordination (01LR2008A1)},
pid = {G:(BMFTR)01LR2008A / G:(BMFTR)01LR2008A1},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)11},
doi = {10.18154/RWTH-2026-01451},
url = {https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/1028100},
}
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